What to trade around United States Retail Sales MoM news event

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we could expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 17 May 12:30 if the released value is > 0.9%. A price movement of 17 pips could result.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Nov 13:30
15 Oct 12:30
16 Sep 12:30
16 Jul 12:30